The first quarter of 2023 saw some progress in inflation data and a surge in investor enthusiasm around artificial intelligence. Nonetheless, the March failures of Silicon Valley and Signature Banks were the story of the quarter. Bank failures are not out of the ordinary. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) counts just five years without […]
Continue Reading ›February 2023 Monthly Market Update
February was a case of good news is bad news, or to be more specific, good economic data was bad news for stocks and bonds. Economic data continues to point to a resilient US economy, shrugging off higher interest rates. Retail sales reaccelerated in recent months, with real (after inflation) incomes on the rise. Fourth […]
Continue Reading ›January 2023 Monthly Market Update
Stocks rallied to start the year, with the S&P 500 climbing 6.3% in January. Bullish inflation data and a lower U.S. dollar provided fuel for the rally. The Federal Reserve slowed interest rate hikes to just a 0.25% increase on February 1st. The milder inflation data and slowing pace of interest rate hikes have led […]
Continue Reading ›December 2022 Monthly Market Update
2022 was the year markets were reminded of the risks posed by high inflation. Unfortunately for investors, this reminder came at a cost. Higher interest rates, intended to address high inflation, had an adverse effect on stock and bond performance. Bond prices move inversely to interest rates, so as rates rise, bond prices fall. The […]
Continue Reading ›November 2022 Monthly Market Update
US stocks rallied in November, fueled in part by better-than-expected inflation data early in the month. The S&P 500 recorded its biggest one-day gain of the year, rallying 5.5% on November 10th, following the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release. While inflation remains, markets celebrated continued indications that inflation is easing. […]
Continue Reading ›October 2022 Monthly Market Update
Stocks rebounded in October, with the S&P 500 gaining 8% and the Dow posting its largest monthly gain since 1976, up 14%. Bond markets stabilized following the U.K.’s abrupt fiscal policy turn towards less deficit-financed spending. For over a decade, bond markets rarely reacted significantly to governments borrowing heavily to fund larger deficits. With high […]
Continue Reading ›September 2022 Monthly Market Update
The stock market had a significant rally in the first half of the third quarter, followed by another leg down in late August & September that took the major indices back to mid-June lows. Hawkish comments by the Fed regarding inflation pressures caused treasury interest rates to reach 12-year highs. Despite the pain higher interest […]
Continue Reading ›August 2022 Monthly Market Update
Markets continued to rally in early August on optimism surrounding cooling inflation data, which led investors to think the Fed may begin to take a less aggressive stance on future rate hikes. Fed Chairman Powell, in a speech on the 26th, reiterated the Fed will not be backing down until it is clear victory can […]
Continue Reading ›July 2022 Monthly Market Update
Stock and bond markets rallied in July, providing some consolation for 2022’s poor first-half performance. Despite high inflation data in June, some investors felt optimistic about the potential for inflation to moderate. Most commodities, including gasoline, copper, lumber, wheat, and corn, saw sharp declines. Import prices also fell, aided by the strong dollar and slowing […]
Continue Reading ›June 2022 Monthly Market Update
The second quarter was marked by broad declines in bond and stock prices as markets contend with rising interest rates and a weakening economic outlook. Last year, the economy and financial markets were riding a tailwind of stimulus in two forms: 1) significant deficit spending by the federal government and 2) ultra-low interest rate policies […]
Continue Reading ›May 2022 Monthly Market Update
Major stock market indices ended the month of May roughly flat, following a poor April. 2022 has been a challenging year for risk assets. In general, riskier parts of the market have shed more than the broader market, as one might expect during periods of elevated volatility. Year-to-date, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, composed of […]
Continue Reading ›April 2022 Economic Dashboard
Stocks and bonds sold off in April as interest rates continued to rise and the U.S. dollar index hit a 20-year high. All else equal, a stronger dollar applies downward pressure to inflation as imports become cheaper. The strengthening dollar and rising interest rates are not unrelated. Europe and Japan’s central banks are hardly budging […]
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