All major U.S. stock market indices posted another strong quarter of gains as the economy continued to reopen. The confluence of pent-up demand, prior government stimulus, and record household savings fueled robust consumer spending. The pandemic-induced shift in spending to goods continued early in the quarter. Spending began to shift back to services later in […]
Continue Reading ›May 2021 Economic Dashboard
The S&P 500 index managed a modest gain of 0.5% in May on muted volatility. Inflation continues to dominate headlines as several commodities reached all-time highs and consumer price indices saw their largest spikes in decades. The major central banks of the world continue to view recent inflation as transitory. The Federal Reserve is willing […]
Continue Reading ›April 2021 Economic Dashboard
The S&P 500 advanced 5% in April as treasury yields stabilized following a significant run-up in the first quarter. First quarter GDP results were released at the end of April, showing 6.4% real growth and 10.7% nominal growth, annualized. Retail sales and goods consumption soared in March as more stimulus boosted personal incomes. The wave […]
Continue Reading ›March 2021 Economic Dashboard
The first quarter of 2021 featured vaccinations and falling COVID cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. Enthusiasm for a reopening and more fiscal stimulus raised expectations for US economic growth. As investor optimism improved over the quarter, a change in performance leadership – “rotation” – accelerated. Cyclical industries, which tend to perform well in a strong economy, […]
Continue Reading ›February 2021 Economic Dashboard
February marked an acceleration of investor optimism for a strengthening economy. Amidst the backdrop of falling COVID cases, vaccination progress, and House passage of a $1.9 Trillion stimulus bill, the S&P 500 index rose 2.6% for the month. Cyclical sectors like energy, financials, and industrials led the market. Perhaps more encouraging for the economy, is […]
Continue Reading ›January 2021 Economic Dashboard
By now, many have heard of the recent drama surrounding GameStop, AMC, and several other stocks making huge moves in the last week. GameStop shares traded from $61 to $483 in the final week of January. Media coverage has been unclear and generally failed to explain some of the underlying dynamics at work, so we […]
Continue Reading ›December 2020 Economic Dashboard
2020 was a year no one could make up. As the year ends, what are investors looking towards in 2021? All hinges on the speed and success of Operation Warp Speed’s vaccination efforts. It will probably take most of 2021 to roll out the vaccine to nearly all adults but giving priority to elderly and […]
Continue Reading ›November 2020 Economic Dashboard
As the stock market climbs to new all-time highs, a little noticed trend has emerged in the longer maturities of the Treasury market. Interest rates for the 10-year Treasury bottomed at 0.50% on August 6 and climbed to 0.98% on November 9 with the announcement of the first COVID-19 vaccine trial results. 10-year yields are […]
Continue Reading ›October 2020 Economic Dashboard
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released third quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) results on October 29th, showing the economy staged a strong rebound. In the third quarter, GDP rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 33.1%, following the second quarter decline of 31.4%. Annual conversions of quarterly figures magnify changes. The below chart […]
Continue Reading ›September 2020 Economic Dashboard
As September came to a close, we are now 6 months from the bear market bottom of March 23rd. The market looks vastly different today than it did one year ago, but the S&P 500 is up 8.2% for the 1-year period ending on September 23rd. This compares favorably to the average returns over the […]
Continue Reading ›February 2020 Economic Dashboard
Last month’s letter mentioned the coronavirus’ potential to infect global supply chains. February showed the risk materializing along with more widespread impacts on travel. The Federal Reserve’s 0.50% rate cut on March 3rd did little to assuage investors, highlighting the limitations of monetary policy tools in “treating” the virus. Nevertheless, consumers are enjoying the benefits […]
Continue Reading ›November 2019 Economic Dashboard
In announcing their third rate cut for 2019 earlier this quarter, the Federal Reserve signaled that they believed this latest cut would be enough to support moderate growth and a continued buoyant job market. With the federal funds benchmark rate back down to a range of 1.5 percent to 1.75 percent, the focus now turns […]
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