February marked an acceleration of investor optimism for a strengthening economy. Amidst the backdrop of falling COVID cases, vaccination progress, and House passage of a $1.9 Trillion stimulus bill, the S&P 500 index rose 2.6% for the month. Cyclical sectors like energy, financials, and industrials led the market. Perhaps more encouraging for the economy, is […]
Continue Reading ›January 2021 Economic Dashboard
By now, many have heard of the recent drama surrounding GameStop, AMC, and several other stocks making huge moves in the last week. GameStop shares traded from $61 to $483 in the final week of January. Media coverage has been unclear and generally failed to explain some of the underlying dynamics at work, so we […]
Continue Reading ›December 2020 Economic Dashboard
2020 was a year no one could make up. As the year ends, what are investors looking towards in 2021? All hinges on the speed and success of Operation Warp Speed’s vaccination efforts. It will probably take most of 2021 to roll out the vaccine to nearly all adults but giving priority to elderly and […]
Continue Reading ›November 2020 Economic Dashboard
As the stock market climbs to new all-time highs, a little noticed trend has emerged in the longer maturities of the Treasury market. Interest rates for the 10-year Treasury bottomed at 0.50% on August 6 and climbed to 0.98% on November 9 with the announcement of the first COVID-19 vaccine trial results. 10-year yields are […]
Continue Reading ›October 2020 Economic Dashboard
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released third quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) results on October 29th, showing the economy staged a strong rebound. In the third quarter, GDP rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 33.1%, following the second quarter decline of 31.4%. Annual conversions of quarterly figures magnify changes. The below chart […]
Continue Reading ›September 2020 Economic Dashboard
As September came to a close, we are now 6 months from the bear market bottom of March 23rd. The market looks vastly different today than it did one year ago, but the S&P 500 is up 8.2% for the 1-year period ending on September 23rd. This compares favorably to the average returns over the […]
Continue Reading ›August 2020 Economic Dashboard
The S&P 500 closed August up 7%, pushing the index above its pre-COVID high set in February. Market momentum continued to accelerate from prior strength. Technology stocks and large-cap stocks continued to lead the market, maintaining the 2020 trend. However, in a positive sign for the broader market and economy, some more economically cyclical sectors […]
Continue Reading ›July 2020 Economic Dashboard
July was a very strong month for nearly all assets, including stocks. The S&P 500 rose 5% as interest rates continued to decline and the US dollar had its weakest month since 2010. Lower rates and a lower dollar should be positives for the economy going forward by stimulating investment and bolstering US exporters. A […]
Continue Reading ›June 2020 Economic Dashboard
The second quarter of 2020 happily contrasted to the first quarter, which experienced one of the worst declines in stock market history. Record fiscal and monetary stimulus accompanied by improving coronavirus-related news served as powerful tailwinds for the market. The Federal Reserve has stated a willingness to respond aggressively should the economy struggle to recover. […]
Continue Reading ›May 2020 Economic Dashboard
Since the economic shutdown caused by the coronavirus, the two dominant economic questions have concerned 1) the depth of the economic decline and 2) the duration of the economic recovery. Massive global fiscal and monetary stimulus has helped reduce the depth of the economic decline. Policymakers have been aggressive in the amount of stimulus, as […]
Continue Reading ›April 2020 Economic Dashboard
April was a historic month for the US economy, as the coronavirus continued to grind parts of the economy to a halt. 20 million Americans filed initial unemployment claims, benchmark oil prices went negative for a short period, and the 1st Quarter GDP report, released April 29th, showed a -4.8% contraction. Despite the flurry of […]
Continue Reading ›March 2020 Economic Dashboard
The eleven-year US bull market ended abruptly in March, yet another victim of the novel coronavirus. The US has responded with two significant steps: Congress has passed a $2.2 trillion stimulus package (equal to 10% of the economy) and the Federal Reserve has made up to $4 trillion (18% of the economy) in liquidity to […]
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