By now, many have heard of the recent drama surrounding GameStop, AMC, and several other stocks making huge moves in the last week. GameStop shares traded from $61 to $483 in the final week of January. Media coverage has been unclear and generally failed to explain some of the underlying dynamics at work, so we […]
Continue Reading ›December 2020 Economic Dashboard
2020 was a year no one could make up. As the year ends, what are investors looking towards in 2021? All hinges on the speed and success of Operation Warp Speed’s vaccination efforts. It will probably take most of 2021 to roll out the vaccine to nearly all adults but giving priority to elderly and […]
Continue Reading ›November 2020 Economic Dashboard
As the stock market climbs to new all-time highs, a little noticed trend has emerged in the longer maturities of the Treasury market. Interest rates for the 10-year Treasury bottomed at 0.50% on August 6 and climbed to 0.98% on November 9 with the announcement of the first COVID-19 vaccine trial results. 10-year yields are […]
Continue Reading ›October 2020 Economic Dashboard
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released third quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) results on October 29th, showing the economy staged a strong rebound. In the third quarter, GDP rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 33.1%, following the second quarter decline of 31.4%. Annual conversions of quarterly figures magnify changes. The below chart […]
Continue Reading ›September 2020 Economic Dashboard
As September came to a close, we are now 6 months from the bear market bottom of March 23rd. The market looks vastly different today than it did one year ago, but the S&P 500 is up 8.2% for the 1-year period ending on September 23rd. This compares favorably to the average returns over the […]
Continue Reading ›February 2020 Economic Dashboard
Last month’s letter mentioned the coronavirus’ potential to infect global supply chains. February showed the risk materializing along with more widespread impacts on travel. The Federal Reserve’s 0.50% rate cut on March 3rd did little to assuage investors, highlighting the limitations of monetary policy tools in “treating” the virus. Nevertheless, consumers are enjoying the benefits […]
Continue Reading ›November 2019 Economic Dashboard
In announcing their third rate cut for 2019 earlier this quarter, the Federal Reserve signaled that they believed this latest cut would be enough to support moderate growth and a continued buoyant job market. With the federal funds benchmark rate back down to a range of 1.5 percent to 1.75 percent, the focus now turns […]
Continue Reading ›October 2019 Economic Dashboard
Much has been in the news and on the minds of investors about a weakening US economy. Several developments in October helped to temper these fears, leading to a 3.3% rise in the S&P 500. Trade talks showed some signs of positive momentum, with the US and China announcing a “phase one” trade agreement. Better […]
Continue Reading ›September 2019 Economic Dashboard
The US stock market finished the third quarter near its all-time highs, which is remarkable given the volatility witnessed during the 90-day period. The media has been touting a recession resulting from the combination of the trade war and restrictive Fed monetary policy. Most economic indicators are pointing to slower growth, so the Fed has […]
Continue Reading ›August 2019 Economic Dashboard
August was a more volatile month than usual, triggered by both an escalation of the trade war with China and more indications that the US economy may be slowing more than expected. The S&P 500 had daily changes of over 1% on 11 of the 22 trading days in response to both rhetoric and economic […]
Continue Reading ›July 2019 Economic Dashboard
After a relatively good month for the stock market in July, the one-two punch of a disappointing Fed rate cut on July 31 and more tariffs on Chinese goods and its retaliatory currency devaluation in the first days of August have sent stock prices sharply lower. Markets like predictability (which usually comes at a premium) […]
Continue Reading ›June 2019 Economic Dashboard
The stock market continued the rally from the Christmas Eve low that marked the end of the fourth quarter “mini” bear market. Stocks at that time fell due to fears the Fed would continue to increase short-term interest rates to levels that would lead to a recession. The Fed has since held the line on […]
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