Dashboard

March 2021 Economic Dashboard

The first quarter of 2021 featured vaccinations and falling COVID cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. Enthusiasm for a reopening and more fiscal stimulus raised expectations for US economic growth. As investor optimism improved over the quarter, a change in performance leadership – “rotation” – accelerated. Cyclical industries, which tend to perform well in a strong economy,… Read More »

February 2021 Economic Dashboard

February marked an acceleration of investor optimism for a strengthening economy. Amidst the backdrop of falling COVID cases, vaccination progress, and House passage of a $1.9 Trillion stimulus bill, the S&P 500 index rose 2.6% for the month. Cyclical sectors like energy, financials, and industrials led the market. Perhaps more encouraging for the economy, is… Read More »

January 2021 Economic Dashboard

By now, many have heard of the recent drama surrounding GameStop, AMC, and several other stocks making huge moves in the last week. GameStop shares traded from $61 to $483 in the final week of January. Media coverage has been unclear and generally failed to explain some of the underlying dynamics at work, so we… Read More »

December 2020 Economic Dashboard

2020 was a year no one could make up. As the year ends, what are investors looking towards in 2021? All hinges on the speed and success of Operation Warp Speed’s vaccination efforts. It will probably take most of 2021 to roll out the vaccine to nearly all adults but giving priority to elderly and… Read More »

November 2020 Economic Dashboard

As the stock market climbs to new all-time highs, a little noticed trend has emerged in the longer maturities of the Treasury market.  Interest rates for the 10-year Treasury bottomed at 0.50% on August 6 and climbed to 0.98% on November 9 with the announcement of the first COVID-19 vaccine trial results.  10-year yields are… Read More »

October 2020 Economic Dashboard

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released third quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) results on October 29th, showing the economy staged a strong rebound. In the third quarter, GDP rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 33.1%, following the second quarter decline of 31.4%. Annual conversions of quarterly figures magnify changes. The below chart… Read More »

September 2020 Economic Dashboard

Market Data

As September came to a close, we are now 6 months from the bear market bottom of March 23rd. The market looks vastly different today than it did one year ago, but the S&P 500 is up 8.2% for the 1-year period ending on September 23rd. This compares favorably to the average returns over the… Read More »

August 2020 Economic Dashboard

Market Data

The S&P 500 closed August up 7%, pushing the index above its pre-COVID high set in February. Market momentum continued to accelerate from prior strength. Technology stocks and large-cap stocks continued to lead the market, maintaining the 2020 trend. However, in a positive sign for the broader market and economy, some more economically cyclical sectors… Read More »

July 2020 Economic Dashboard

Market Data

July was a very strong month for nearly all assets, including stocks. The S&P 500 rose 5% as interest rates continued to decline and the US dollar had its weakest month since 2010. Lower rates and a lower dollar should be positives for the economy going forward by stimulating investment and bolstering US exporters. A… Read More »

June 2020 Economic Dashboard

Market Data

The second quarter of 2020 happily contrasted to the first quarter, which experienced one of the worst declines in stock market history. Record fiscal and monetary stimulus accompanied by improving coronavirus-related news served as powerful tailwinds for the market. The Federal Reserve has stated a willingness to respond aggressively should the economy struggle to recover…. Read More »