February 2019 Economic Dashboard

The bear market in US stocks that occurred in the fourth quarter of 2018 was triggered by a fear that the Federal Reserve would keep increasing interest rates to fight off incipient inflation pressures building in the US economy.  Given the incredible US jobs growth machine, spanning 100 straight months of gains and counting, better… Read More »

January 2019 Economic Dashboard

US stocks posted their best January performance in 30 years.  Following the worst December since 1931, investors can rightly breathe a sigh of relief.  Our December Dashboard outlined the havoc caused by Fed Chair Jay Powell’s ill-advised remarks in October regarding future interest rate policy, as well as poorly-received follow-up statements about overall monetary policy… Read More »

December 2018 Economic Dashboard

“We are a long way from neutral.”  This phrase, uttered by Fed Chair Jerome Powell in response to a reporter’s question in early October, knocked the legs out from under the US stock market and triggered a fourth quarter decline in stocks not seen since the Financial Crisis began in 2008.    Powell was referring to… Read More »

November 2018 Economic Dashboard

Rumors of a plateauing of oil output in Texas, New Mexico (which share the Permian Basin) and North Dakota have been exaggerated by a lack of pipelines to transport shale oil to refining depots.  The pipeline bottleneck should be eased by the end of 2019 when three new pipelines are completed that will link the… Read More »

October 2018 Economic Dashboard

After enjoying five consecutive months of gains, US stocks had a terrible month of October, dropping almost 8% from their highs reached early in the month. Third quarter GDP growth was a very strong 3.5%, buoyed by robust consumer spending.  Corporate earnings beat already-high expectations.  So why then did the market have a sudden change… Read More »