Author Archives: John Shelbourne

November 2022 Monthly Market Update

US stocks rallied in November, fueled in part by better-than-expected inflation data early in the month.  The S&P 500 recorded its biggest one-day gain of the year, rallying 5.5% on November 10th, following the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release. While inflation remains, markets celebrated continued indications that inflation is easing…. Read More »

October 2022 Monthly Market Update

Stocks rebounded in October, with the S&P 500 gaining 8% and the Dow posting its largest monthly gain since 1976, up 14%. Bond markets stabilized following the U.K.’s abrupt fiscal policy turn towards less deficit-financed spending. For over a decade, bond markets rarely reacted significantly to governments borrowing heavily to fund larger deficits. With high… Read More »

September 2022 Monthly Market Update

The stock market had a significant rally in the first half of the third quarter, followed by another leg down in late August & September that took the major indices back to mid-June lows. Hawkish comments by the Fed regarding inflation pressures caused treasury interest rates to reach 12-year highs. Despite the pain higher interest… Read More »

August 2022 Monthly Market Update

Markets continued to rally in early August on optimism surrounding cooling inflation data, which led investors to think the Fed may begin to take a less aggressive stance on future rate hikes. Fed Chairman Powell, in a speech on the 26th, reiterated the Fed will not be backing down until it is clear victory can… Read More »

July 2022 Monthly Market Update

Stock and bond markets rallied in July, providing some consolation for 2022’s poor first-half performance. Despite high inflation data in June, some investors felt optimistic about the potential for inflation to moderate. Most commodities, including gasoline, copper, lumber, wheat, and corn, saw sharp declines. Import prices also fell, aided by the strong dollar and slowing… Read More »

June 2022 Monthly Market Update

The second quarter was marked by broad declines in bond and stock prices as markets contend with rising interest rates and a weakening economic outlook. Last year, the economy and financial markets were riding a tailwind of stimulus in two forms: 1) significant deficit spending by the federal government and 2) ultra-low interest rate policies… Read More »

May 2022 Monthly Market Update

Major stock market indices ended the month of May roughly flat, following a poor April. 2022 has been a challenging year for risk assets. In general, riskier parts of the market have shed more than the broader market, as one might expect during periods of elevated volatility. Year-to-date, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, composed of… Read More »

April 2022 Economic Dashboard

Stocks and bonds sold off in April as interest rates continued to rise and the U.S. dollar index hit a 20-year high. All else equal, a stronger dollar applies downward pressure to inflation as imports become cheaper. The strengthening dollar and rising interest rates are not unrelated. Europe and Japan’s central banks are hardly budging… Read More »

March 2022 Economic Dashboard

Markets stumbled out of the gate this year as fears of a Russian invasion of Ukraine became a tragic reality. Despite the geopolitical turmoil, the Dow and S&P 500 ended the quarter higher than before the war began. The consequences of the conflict, including international sanctions, will significantly impact the global economy. Russia is a… Read More »

February 2022 Economic Dashboard

The Russia-Ukraine conflict dominated financial headlines in February, leading to modest declines for U.S. stock indices. Interest rates continued to climb most of the month but dropped following the invasion. Mounting international sanctions have put the Russian Ruble into free-fall, as businesses and individuals rush to sell Russian assets. The U.S. economy and stock market… Read More »

January 2022 Economic Dashboard

January was an eventful month in financial markets. Fourth quarter real GDP growth came in at 6.9% as businesses replenished inventory and consumer spending remained strong despite less government stimulus. The Federal Reserve continued to accelerate plans for interest rate hikes, signaling a likely first hike in March to combat inflation. How inflation responds to… Read More »

December 2021 Economic Dashboard

2021 was an outstanding year for U.S. stocks. The S&P 500 rallied nearly 30% on low volatility by historical standards (there was not a single correction of 6% or more). Fiscal and monetary stimulus, combined with a rapidly reopening economy, helped propel the market higher. We enter 2022 with a much stronger economy than a… Read More »